Ky Holland, June 16th – BTW (More LNG tracking and FAQ info)

I was curious to see a message promoting the CEA LNG “preliminary deal” asking if “the Senate will stand in the way of Southcentral gas?” I believe it’s the wrong question.

Southcentral utilities planning for a future supply of North Slope gas is a positive step, and it’s good to see momentum building around Alaska’s long-term energy needs. But our local need for gas and enthusiasm will never finance a gas pipeline.

As practical Alaskans, we should keep our eye on the ball, not the hands.

Letters of intent and enthusiasm are important, but they aren’t the pieces that determine whether a gasline project gets built. The questions that still matter are straightforward:

• Where are the firm large ship-or-pay gas buyers, in sufficient volume to satisfy investor due diligence and support loans, loan guarantees, and equity investment?
• Where are the committed investors ready to put roughly $4 billion into Phase 1 of a pipeline intentionally oversized for Alaska’s market, with the expectation that LNG customers will follow?
• Who is sitting with a pen in hand, prepared to sign binding agreements?

So far, we’ve heard exactly zero names—and not even assurances that such agreements are waiting on a legislative vote approving a 90% property tax reduction.

The developer has had the authority and incentives it needed for more than a year and spent much of 2025 working to close commercial agreements and reach a Final Investment Decision that was originally targeted for last December. The request this spring for new additional tax relief reflects the reality that the project still faces commercial challenges. I sincerely hope a roughly $0.50 per mcf reduction in costs from lower property taxes is enough to improve the economics and help close those deals.

If the Senate passes a bill, the House concurs, and the Governor signs; that will give the developer an opportunity to return to the market with a lower cost structure and try again to secure investors and customers. I hope it does.

But we should stay focused on the milestones that truly determine success.

The real question isn’t where the excitement is, or do we need south central gas – of course we do, but we will never have the gas demand or the money to bet on a $16b pipeline. So, where are the pens—and the large checks behind them—that are ready to sign binding agreements? Show us, and I am positive that the Senate and House would be running, not walking to pass bills.

Ky