April 19,2026
Following a town hall and some tough and provocative questions yesterday, I walked through the 5th Avenue Mall and was struck by how many storefronts were closed. Driving around town too many “For lease” signs cluttered the roads like the desperate-for-attention campaign signs we’ll grumble about in a few months.
This morning, the news brought more cuts to public education.
Those three images—empty storefronts, for lease business space, and shrinking schools—tell a story. Not of a single bad decision, but of a system that isn’t producing the outcomes we need.
And yet, when we talk about fiscal policy in Alaska, the dominant message remains: don’t change anything—protect stability – No change to regulations, no change to taxes; and, let’s talk about the need for a fiscal policies – but don’t change anything about creating one!
But it raises a fundamental question:
Is the “stability” we’re protecting actually working? Or is it quietly creating more uncertainty about Alaska’s future?
The Shift Happening in Alaska’s Oil and Gas Industry
Alaska’s oil and gas sector is changing.
The era of large, legacy corporations dominating the landscape has given way to a new generation of smaller, more agile, and more entrepreneurial operators. These companies are often highly effective at optimizing mature assets, reducing costs, and extending the life of existing fields.
That’s a strength.
But it also reflects a broader shift: We are becoming an economy that is better at extracting remaining value than creating new value.
And that matters.
Because optimization alone doesn’t grow an economy. It sustains it—for a time—but it doesn’t expand opportunity, diversify risk, or build the next generation of industries.
Where Industry Investment Could Have the Most Impact
I came across a post this morning about Alaska industry support for university research, and it highlighted an important distinction:
Not all investment has the same impact.
For Alaska, the opportunity may not be in doubling down on early-stage research alone—but in strengthening the pipeline that turns ideas into real businesses:
- Tech transfer and commercialization
- Applied innovation tied to real industry challenges
- New venture creation that builds local capacity and supply chains
This is where Alaska has a gap—and where industry could play a catalytic role.
Especially for companies that excel at practical problem-solving and operational efficiency, there is a natural alignment:
Invest in innovation that solves real-world challenges, and you improve your own bottom line while building a broader economy around you.
The Bigger Issue: A System That Isn’t Delivering
Zooming out, the warning signs are clear:
- A stagnant economy
- A declining working-age population
- High reliance on nonresident workers
- Increasing strain on public services
- Visible contraction in local businesses and investment
We are paying a real price for this.
And yet, the prevailing response is to avoid change—particularly when it comes to fiscal policy.
That approach may feel safe. It may even be politically appealing.
But in practice, it is locking in decline.
Because uncertainty doesn’t just come from change—it comes from a lack of direction.
What a Better Path Could Look Like
There is a path forward that works for both Alaska and industry—but it requires moving beyond the idea that the current system is “stable.”
A stronger framework would include:
1. A fair, predictable fiscal structure
One that provides long-term certainty, aligns contributions across sectors, and supports essential public services without annual crisis.
2. Targeted investment in what actually grows the economy
Infrastructure, workforce development, and especially economic diversification and new business creation.
3. Alignment between economic activity and public systems
Ensuring that the economy supports the schools, infrastructure, and communities it depends on—and that those systems, in turn, enable growth.
This isn’t about targeting any one company or industry.
It’s about building a system where everyone contributes to—and benefits from—a stronger Alaska.
Reducing the Target by Growing the Base
Right now, much of the fiscal pressure falls on a narrow set of industries.
That creates tension—and political risk.
It maintains an economic disconnect where new jobs and companies don’t contribute to the public costs of supporting them.
But there’s another way to think about it:
The best way to reduce pressure on any one sector is to grow the other of sectors contributing to the system.
That means:
- More businesses
- More industries
- More in-state economic activity
- More Alaskans working and building here
A broader economy is not just good for communities—it’s good for industry. It reduces risk, stabilizes demand, and creates new opportunities.
A Call to Move Beyond the Status Quo
Strong schools, reliable infrastructure, and healthy communities are not separate from business success.
They are foundational to it.
And so is a growing, diversified economy that creates new products, services, and opportunities—many of which can directly reduce the cost and risk of operating in Alaska.
The question in front of us isn’t whether we value stability.
It’s whether the system we’re defending is actually delivering it.
Because if it’s not—then real stability will only come from the willingness to change.
So how do we move forward—together—to build an Alaska that is not just stable, but thriving?